Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Daley
Andy Uhrich
96%
4%
Why
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Paul Daley
Andy Uhrich
41
Sig strikes landed
34
99
Sig strikes attempted
104
55
Total strikes landed
36
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.80
Knockdowns
0.10
52s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
40-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Bellator 140: Lima vs. Koreshkov
—
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
Andy Uhrich
0-0
Career record
Height
72"