Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Dwyer
Randy Brown
37%
63%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dwyer: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Brown: 48 sig / 1 TD
Matt Dwyer
Randy Brown
27
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
72
42
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
68s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Dwyer
9-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
Blue corner
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26