Prelims1
Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Masio Fullen
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Masio Fullen
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
21-16
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-8
L3
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 74 sig / 1 TD ·
Fullen: 36 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
Masio Fullen
37
Sig strikes landed
28
74
Sig strikes attempted
72
53
Total strikes landed
43
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1
Masio Fullen
"Lobo"
11-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—