Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Wilson Reis
61%
39%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
20-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ortiz: 45 sig / 1 TD ·
Reis: 48 sig / 9 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Wilson Reis
37
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
63
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
2.7
3.6
Takedowns attempted
6.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
Blue corner
L1
Wilson Reis
23-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—