Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Kevin Casey
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
22-9-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
9-5-2
W3
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Natal: 54 sig / 4 TD ·
Casey: 16 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Kevin Casey
46
Sig strikes landed
30
84
Sig strikes attempted
61
69
Total strikes landed
44
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
212s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Casey
"King"
9-5-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—