Prelims1
Welterweight
George Sullivan vs Alexander Yakovlev
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
George Sullivan
Alexander Yakovlev
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
18-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sullivan: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Yakovlev: 15 sig / 2 TD
George Sullivan
Alexander Yakovlev
37
Sig strikes landed
38
92
Sig strikes attempted
94
65
Total strikes landed
51
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
234s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
W1
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
25-10-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—