Prelims1
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Diego Ferreira
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Diego Ferreira
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
12-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-8
W3
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aubin-Mercier: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Ferreira: 65 sig / 0 TD
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Diego Ferreira
28
Sig strikes landed
27
58
Sig strikes attempted
59
48
Total strikes landed
46
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
197s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
L2
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—