Main
Welterweight
Sage Northcutt vs Bryan Barberena
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Bryan Barberena
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
20
Age
Δ 7y
27
12-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
18-13
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Northcutt: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Barberena: 26 sig / 1 TD
Sage Northcutt
Bryan Barberena
40
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
62
43
Total strikes landed
49
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—