Prelims1
Welterweight
Tarec Saffiedine vs Jake Ellenberger
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tarec Saffiedine
Jake Ellenberger
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
31
16-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
31-16
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saffiedine: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 30 sig / 0 TD
Tarec Saffiedine
Jake Ellenberger
41
Sig strikes landed
41
84
Sig strikes attempted
104
60
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
106s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
16-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
Blue corner
L1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—