Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Ben Rothwell
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
36-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
40-14
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barnett: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Rothwell: 35 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Ben Rothwell
35
Sig strikes landed
33
57
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
36-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—