Main
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Johnson
Ryan Bader
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
23-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-5
W1
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Bader: 0 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Johnson
Ryan Bader
21
Sig strikes landed
17
62
Sig strikes attempted
45
31
Total strikes landed
40
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W5
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—