Back to Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca
Lightweight

Adam Piccolotti vs Mario Soto

Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca ·San Jose State University Event Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Adam Piccolotti
Mario Soto
84% 16%
Why
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Piccolotti: 44 sig / 2 TD · Soto: 12 sig / 0 TD
Adam Piccolotti
Mario Soto
45
Sig strikes landed
44
97
Sig strikes attempted
93
64
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Adam Piccolotti

10-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W Bellator 142: Dynamite 1
—
W Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
—
Blue corner

Mario Soto

"Dr. Mario"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"