Back to Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca
Lightweight

Derek Anderson vs Patricky Freire

Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villaseca ·San Jose State University Event Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Derek Anderson
Patricky Freire
88% 12%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
14-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-8
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Anderson: 76 sig / 0 TD · Freire: 56 sig / 3 TD
Derek Anderson
Patricky Freire
55
Sig strikes landed
44
145
Sig strikes attempted
144
65
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Derek Anderson

"Barbaric"
14-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
W Bellator 132: Pitbull vs. Straus
Blue corner
W1

Patricky Freire

"Pitbull"
18-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz