Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Francisco Trinaldo
30%
70%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
21-16
Career record
Δ 20 pp
29-9
W1
Current streak
W4
15
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pearson: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Trinaldo: 51 sig / 1 TD
Ross Pearson
Francisco Trinaldo
43
Sig strikes landed
44
107
Sig strikes attempted
107
49
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
45s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
W4
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—