Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Travis Browne
Matt Mitrione
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
82"
34
Age
Δ 4y
38
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Browne: 51 sig / 2 TD ·
Mitrione: 27 sig / 0 TD
Travis Browne
Matt Mitrione
33
Sig strikes landed
23
60
Sig strikes attempted
38
35
Total strikes landed
34
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
1.2
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Mitrione
12-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—