Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Ed Herman
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
21-14
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-17
L2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Boetsch: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Herman: 47 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Ed Herman
26
Sig strikes landed
31
57
Sig strikes attempted
63
36
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—