Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Wade
Mehdi Baghdad
68%
32%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Wade: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Baghdad: 1 sig / 0 TD
Chris Wade
Mehdi Baghdad
27
Sig strikes landed
20
48
Sig strikes attempted
47
52
Total strikes landed
32
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
271s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chris Wade
13-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
Mehdi Baghdad
"The Sultan"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31