Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Eddie Alvarez
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
24-11
Career record
Δ 15 pp
30-6
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pettis: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 42 sig / 6 TD
Anthony Pettis
Eddie Alvarez
38
Sig strikes landed
31
93
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
216s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Eddie Alvarez
30-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—