Back to UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
🏆 Title fight Main Bantamweight

TJ Dillashaw vs Dominick Cruz

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Dominick Cruz
47% 53%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
19-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
25-4
W4
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Dillashaw: 109 sig / 1 TD · Cruz: 112 sig / 4 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Dominick Cruz
74
Sig strikes landed
77
171
Sig strikes attempted
180
103
Total strikes landed
115
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
140s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

TJ Dillashaw

19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
W UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
W UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Blue corner
W3

Dominick Cruz

"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
W UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
W UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber