Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Cody Pfister
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
20
Age
Δ 6y
25
12-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
14-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Northcutt: 8 sig / 2 TD ·
Pfister: 5 sig / 2 TD
Sage Northcutt
Cody Pfister
30
Sig strikes landed
14
53
Sig strikes attempted
31
42
Total strikes landed
37
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W1
Cody Pfister
"The Fist"
14-6-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—