Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Michael Chiesa
68%
32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
40-19
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-7
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Miller: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Chiesa: 13 sig / 2 TD
Jim Miller
Michael Chiesa
24
Sig strikes landed
30
55
Sig strikes attempted
64
34
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
91s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—