Main
Middleweight
Elias Theodorou vs Thiago Santos
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
·The Chelsea
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Elias Theodorou
Thiago Santos
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
17-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-11
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Theodorou: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Santos: 52 sig / 1 TD
Elias Theodorou
Thiago Santos
32
Sig strikes landed
28
66
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
38
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
W2
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—