Back to UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Prelims1 Welterweight

Danny Roberts vs Nathan Coy

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant ·The Chelsea
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Danny Roberts
Nathan Coy
79% 21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 9y
37

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Roberts: 6 sig / 0 TD · Coy: 11 sig / 1 TD
Danny Roberts
Nathan Coy
43
Sig strikes landed
32
91
Sig strikes attempted
66
57
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Danny Roberts

"Hot Chocolate"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner

Nathan Coy

"Soulforce"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37