Prelims1
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Andreas Stahl
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
·The Chelsea
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Andreas Stahl
84%
16%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
28
31-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ponzinibbio: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Stahl: 14 sig / 2 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Andreas Stahl
45
Sig strikes landed
37
108
Sig strikes attempted
102
64
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
L1
Andreas Stahl
"Real Steel"
10-5
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—