Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
John Howard
72%
28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
33-18-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
25-13
L1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Means: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Howard: 20 sig / 3 TD
Tim Means
John Howard
43
Sig strikes landed
30
96
Sig strikes attempted
70
52
Total strikes landed
41
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
73s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner
W1
John Howard
"Doomsday"
25-13
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—