Prelims1
Welterweight
Omari Akhmedov vs Sergio Moraes
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
·The Chelsea
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Omari Akhmedov
Sergio Moraes
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
22-6-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-6-1
W2
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Akhmedov: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Moraes: 21 sig / 0 TD
Omari Akhmedov
Sergio Moraes
27
Sig strikes landed
22
68
Sig strikes attempted
52
43
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W3
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—