Prelims1
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Kevin Casey
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
·The Chelsea
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carlos Junior
Kevin Casey
77%
23%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
26
Age
Δ 9y
34
12-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-5-2
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Carlos Junior: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Casey: 0 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carlos Junior
Kevin Casey
28
Sig strikes landed
17
63
Sig strikes attempted
26
60
Total strikes landed
39
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
259s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Casey
"King"
10-5-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—