Main
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas vs Paige VanZant
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
·The Chelsea
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rose Namajunas
Paige VanZant
52%
48%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
23
Age
Δ 2y
22
16-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Namajunas: 57 sig / 8 TD ·
VanZant: 10 sig / 0 TD
Rose Namajunas
Paige VanZant
34
Sig strikes landed
32
79
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
69
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
285s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
63%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W3
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
9-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—