Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Patterson
Codale Ford
89%
11%
Why
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Justin Patterson
Codale Ford
48
Sig strikes landed
39
110
Sig strikes attempted
100
68
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Patterson
"The Tactician"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
30
Blue corner
Codale Ford
"Crunch Time"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
37