Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Girtz
Derek Campos
68%
32%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
15-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-7
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Girtz: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Campos: 0 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Girtz
Derek Campos
36
Sig strikes landed
30
100
Sig strikes attempted
107
42
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
34s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Girtz
"Cold Roll"
15-7
Career record
Height
67"
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
—
Blue corner
L1
Derek Campos
"The Stallion"
19-7
Career record
Height
69"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
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