Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Manhoef
Hisaki Kato
85%
15%
Why
40
Age
Δ 6y
33
30-14-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
9-2
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Manhoef: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Kato: 14 sig / 0 TD
Melvin Manhoef
Hisaki Kato
25
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
82
37
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.60
83s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Melvin Manhoef
"No Mercy"
30-14-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
W1
Hisaki Kato
9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 139: Kongo vs. Volkov
—