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Julian Erosa vs Marcin Wrzosek

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale ·The Chelsea
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Marcin Wrzosek
91% 9%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Erosa: 61 sig / 2 TD · Wrzosek: 52 sig / 3 TD
Julian Erosa
Marcin Wrzosek
45
Sig strikes landed
42
112
Sig strikes attempted
97
62
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Julian Erosa

"Juicy J"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner

Marcin Wrzosek

"The Polish Zombie"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
28