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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Konstantin Erokhin

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale ·The Chelsea
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Konstantin Erokhin
53% 47%
Why
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
17-12
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-4
L3
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gonzaga: 20 sig / 2 TD · Erokhin: 15 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Konstantin Erokhin
25
Sig strikes landed
19
51
Sig strikes attempted
36
47
Total strikes landed
32
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Gabriel Gonzaga

"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
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L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
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L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
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W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
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W UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
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Blue corner
L1

Konstantin Erokhin

9-4
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
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