Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Prelims1 Flyweight

Joby Sanchez vs Geane Herrera

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale ·The Chelsea
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joby Sanchez
Geane Herrera
69% 31%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
24
Age
Δ 1y
26
12-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
9-4
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sanchez: 55 sig / 0 TD · Herrera: 40 sig / 1 TD
Joby Sanchez
Geane Herrera
40
Sig strikes landed
34
88
Sig strikes attempted
87
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Joby Sanchez

12-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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Blue corner
L1

Geane Herrera

"La Pulga"
9-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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