Prelims1
Welterweight
Ryan LaFlare vs Mike Pierce
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan LaFlare
Mike Pierce
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
14-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
LaFlare: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Pierce: 42 sig / 0 TD
Ryan LaFlare
Mike Pierce
40
Sig strikes landed
32
103
Sig strikes attempted
71
70
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan LaFlare
14-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Pierce
17-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—