Prelims1
Lightweight
Chris Gruetzemacher vs Abner Lloveras
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Gruetzemacher
Abner Lloveras
81%
19%
Why
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gruetzemacher: 103 sig / 0 TD ·
Lloveras: 94 sig / 2 TD
Chris Gruetzemacher
Abner Lloveras
46
Sig strikes landed
44
101
Sig strikes attempted
111
62
Total strikes landed
59
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Abner Lloveras
"Skullman"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
33