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Main Lightweight

Joe Lauzon vs Evan Dunham

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Evan Dunham
68% 32%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
29-16
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-9-1
W1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lauzon: 42 sig / 0 TD · Dunham: 127 sig / 1 TD
Joe Lauzon
Evan Dunham
48
Sig strikes landed
55
111
Sig strikes attempted
131
60
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Joe Lauzon

29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
L UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
Blue corner
W2

Evan Dunham

19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
W UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
L UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
L UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold