Main
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Tony Ferguson
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Tony Ferguson
47%
53%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
25-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
27-11
W1
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barboza: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Ferguson: 61 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Tony Ferguson
49
Sig strikes landed
55
117
Sig strikes attempted
130
48
Total strikes landed
59
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
24s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W6
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—