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Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Alberto Mina

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal ·Olympic Park Gymnastics Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Alberto Mina
31% 69%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
40
Age
Δ 7y
34
15-6
Career record
Δ 22 pp
14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Akiyama: 78 sig / 0 TD · Mina: 69 sig / 2 TD
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Alberto Mina
25
Sig strikes landed
51
65
Sig strikes attempted
94
34
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
92s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Yoshihiro Akiyama

15-6 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
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L UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
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L UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
W1

Alberto Mina

"Soldier of God"
14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
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