Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Abel Trujillo
Tony Sims
54%
46%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
16-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Trujillo: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Sims: 5 sig / 1 TD
Abel Trujillo
Tony Sims
14
Sig strikes landed
25
29
Sig strikes attempted
49
24
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Tony Sims
12-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—