Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Diego Brandao
Brian Ortega
42%
58%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
23-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-5
W2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brandao: 56 sig / 2 TD ·
Ortega: 29 sig / 0 TD
Diego Brandao
Brian Ortega
31
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
82
39
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
56s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Diego Brandao
"DB"
23-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—