Prelims1
Bantamweight
Michael McDonald vs Masanori Kanehara
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael McDonald
Masanori Kanehara
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
17-5
Career record
Δ 18 pp
26-13-5
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McDonald: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Kanehara: 15 sig / 2 TD
Michael McDonald
Masanori Kanehara
30
Sig strikes landed
24
60
Sig strikes attempted
54
39
Total strikes landed
48
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
58s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
17-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
L1
Masanori Kanehara
26-13-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—