Back to UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Joe Soto vs Michinori Tanaka

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Joe Soto
Michinori Tanaka
45% 55%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
18-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-4
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Soto: 71 sig / 1 TD · Tanaka: 57 sig / 3 TD
Joe Soto
Michinori Tanaka
35
Sig strikes landed
39
74
Sig strikes attempted
90
60
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Joe Soto

"One Bad Mofo"
18-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
L1

Michinori Tanaka

11-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—