Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Joe Duffy
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
31-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-5
W2
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Poirier: 72 sig / 4 TD ·
Duffy: 37 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Joe Duffy
41
Sig strikes landed
28
83
Sig strikes attempted
79
46
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
17-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—