Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lorenz Larkin
Albert Tumenov
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
19-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-4
W2
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Larkin: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Tumenov: 76 sig / 0 TD
Lorenz Larkin
Albert Tumenov
36
Sig strikes landed
42
85
Sig strikes attempted
97
41
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
40s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
Blue corner
W4
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—