Back to UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Justine Kish vs Nina Nunes

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Justine Kish
Nina Nunes
57% 43%
Why
64"
Reach
64"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kish: 72 sig / 3 TD · Nunes: 92 sig / 1 TD
Justine Kish
Nina Nunes
34
Sig strikes landed
30
66
Sig strikes attempted
66
61
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
236s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Justine Kish

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1

Nina Nunes

11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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