Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Drew Dober
42%
58%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
15-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
29-16
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holtzman: 38 sig / 2 TD ·
Dober: 36 sig / 5 TD
Scott Holtzman
Drew Dober
49
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
110
70
Total strikes landed
57
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
188s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
L1
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—