Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Andrei Arlovski
78%
22%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
21-5
Career record
Δ 21 pp
35-24
W1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miocic: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Arlovski: 7 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Andrei Arlovski
53
Sig strikes landed
31
92
Sig strikes attempted
83
75
Total strikes landed
45
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
207s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W4
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—