🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Carlos Condit
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Carlos Condit
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
31-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
33-14
W4
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Lawler: 92 sig / 0 TD ·
Condit: 176 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Carlos Condit
84
Sig strikes landed
91
167
Sig strikes attempted
240
97
Total strikes landed
101
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—