Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Gunnar Nelson
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
38
Age
Δ 11y
27
29-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-6-1
W3
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Nelson: 2 sig / 1 TD
Demian Maia
Gunnar Nelson
17
Sig strikes landed
28
44
Sig strikes attempted
55
53
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
282s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—